"Deutsche Bank expects 70 percent of CRE loans to not qualify for refinancing. That comes out to about $2 trillion in commercial real estate that will mature from now until 2013.
"The Fed through TALF has tried to take some of this debt out of the system but now their books are over burdened. Also, many of the commercial real estate loans are junior and don’t even qualify for TALF and these are the real problems. Either way, the reality of the situation is many of these commercial loans are now imploding and many banks are failing on Friday’s like flies running into the light. Unlike the residential real estate bubble, most commercial real estate loans are backed by shorter term financing that is based on 5 to 7 year terms. If prices have fallen by 40 to 45 percent, refinancing becomes impossible"
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